FXUS61 KRLX 150221 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1021 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered showers, some locally heavy, continue across portions of northeast Kentucky into southern and eastern West Virginia along a now stalling cold front. Expect this trend to continue overnight, which could result in isolated high water issues if showers were to train across the same areas for an extended amount of time. In addition, 00Z Aviation Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Round one of showers and thunderstorms occurs later this afternoon into early Thursday morning as a cold front drops into the region. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible and repetitive showers/storms may cause some localized flash flooding. 2) Round two of showers with gusty winds accompany a cold frontal passage on Friday. 3) Much cooler temperatures with a threat of a frost/freeze over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will sag south into the area tonight bringing increasing showers and thunderstorms. A weak wave of low pressure also moves along the front, enhancing rainfall at times. Ahead of the front, temperatures have soared to well above normal values and southwesterly low level winds have pumped ample moisture northward with PWATS approaching 2 inches along the front. All of this points to a potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, with gusty winds the primary threat, and then heavy rainfall overnight as the front stalls out bisecting the area in a west to east orientation. This sets up the potential for repetitive rounds of showers and storms with WPC highlighting a large chunk of our CWA under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall overnight. The front lifts north as a warm front tomorrow resulting in a lull in precipitation during the afternoon and another warm day. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models continue to slow down the frontal passage on Friday with the general consensus now being a midday or afternoon passage. This should be accompanied by a broken line of showers, with just enough instability for perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The bigger concern is gusty winds though with potential for widespread 30 to 40 mph winds and higher in the higher elevations. This will cause scattered power outages if it materializes. KEY MESSAGE 3... Breezy north winds continue to usher in a seasonably cool airmass Saturday with a few light rain showers, and maybe some mountain flurries in the morning. Winds then die down Saturday night as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in and this will support temperatures falling to around freezing for many locations and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. Temperatures then slowly moderate into next week but at least some patchy frost will again be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue to sink south into the area overnight, before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday during the day. Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate overnight in low stratus and patchy fog, with MVFR/IFR expected across much of the area by later tonight. Scattered showers will continue overnight, especially central/south. A very slow return to VFR is expected during the day on Thursday following the passage of the warm front northward, with some locations central/north remaining MVFR or even IFR through the remainder of this TAF period (until 00Z Friday). Light surface flow is expected throughout this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary from the forecast depending on rainfall, low stratus, and patchy fog. Improvement in flight conditions later Thursday will also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H M H H H M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are also possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .Climate... A high temperature of 85 degrees was observed at Parkersburg on Wednesday, tying the old record of 85 degrees first set in 1954 and later tied in 1962. A high temperature of 82 degrees was observed at Elkins on Wednesday, tying the old record of 82 degrees first set in 1899 and later tied in 1940 and 2017. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ABE/GW AVIATION...GW CLIMATE...GW