FXUS61 KRLX 151808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A warm front will support mainly showers this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few storms continue as a warm front lifts north today. 2) Strong cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds on Friday. 3) Cool and drier on Saturday, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, currently draped across southern WV and northeast KY, will begin to shift north as a warm front while the parent low tracks towards the Great Lakes Region. Showers are expected to continue in the vicinity of the front today, then activity will diminish as the front exits the area this evening into tonight. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains present across portions of central and southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, where heavier downpours could prompt isolated high water issues. While isolated storms are not entirely out of the question along the boundary later this afternoon, the risk of severe weather remains low for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system and upper trough will usher a strong cold front across the area on Friday, with showers, storms, and gusty winds expected to occur during the frontal passage. Precipitation should then persist through the night as the upper trough passes overhead. Blustery conditions will also continue into Saturday morning, with 25-30 mph gusts expected across the lowlands, and up to 45 mph gusts possible along the higher terrain. Cold air advection will quickly lower temperatures from west to east behind the front, likely sending temperatures into the 50s across much of the area by the end of the day. Temperatures further lower into the 30s to 40s overnight, which may allow some snowflakes to materialize over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 3... On Saturday, winds gradually relax and precipitation comes to an end as high pressure builds in from the west during the day. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal, with highs likely remaining in the 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Under calm winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to plummet into the 20s to 30s, resulting frost and freeze conditions across the entirety of the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are generally expected to continue into the new work week, though temperatures trend warmer as high pressure meanders towards the east coast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers will support periodic visibility restrictions in the vicinity of a front this afternoon. Widespread sub-VFR ceilings will gradually improve as the front lifts north through the area this afternoon into tonight. Patchy fog may lead to some restrictions overnight, though confidence in development is low as winds may start to increase towards daybreak. MVFR conditions should start to develop from west to east as a cold front brings clouds and precipitation across the area on Friday. Winds will be calm to light into the first part of the night, then flow is expected to increase into Friday morning. LLWS may initially be possible before 15-25kt gusts begin mixing down to the surface on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement today and extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20