FXUS61 KRLX 152349 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 749 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation and equipment section. As of 208 PM... A warm front will support mainly showers or an isolated thunderstorm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few storms continue as a warm front lifts north today. 2) Strong cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds on Friday. 3) Cool and drier on Saturday, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, currently draped across southern WV and northeast KY, will begin to shift north as a warm front while the parent low tracks towards the Great Lakes Region. Showers are expected to continue in the vicinity of the front today, then activity will diminish as the front exits the area this evening into tonight. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains present across portions of central and southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, where heavier downpours could prompt isolated high water issues. While isolated storms are not entirely out of the question along the boundary later this afternoon, the risk of severe weather remains low for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system and upper trough will usher a strong cold front across the area on Friday, with showers, storms, and gusty winds expected to occur during the frontal passage. Precipitation should then persist through the night as the upper trough passes overhead. Blustery conditions will also continue into Saturday morning, with 25-30 mph gusts expected across the lowlands, and up to 45 mph gusts possible along the higher terrain. Cold air advection will quickly lower temperatures from west to east behind the front, likely sending temperatures into the 50s across much of the area by the end of the day. Temperatures further lower into the 30s to 40s overnight, which may allow some snowflakes to materialize over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 3... On Saturday, winds gradually relax and precipitation comes to an end as high pressure builds in from the west during the day. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal, with highs likely remaining in the 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Under calm winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to plummet into the 20s to 30s, resulting frost and freeze conditions across the entirety of the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are generally expected to continue into the new work week, though temperatures trend warmer as high pressure meanders towards the east coast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ample low-level moisture may allow fog or low ceilings to form initially this evening, especially across the south where gradients will remain loosest the longest. Increasing gradients should dissipate much of any restrictions that do form heading into the latter half of the overnight. Isolated to scattered elevated showers are possible overnight as the low-level jet strengthens, with brief MVFR visibility reductions possible in any shower. A cold front will swing through largely during the day on Friday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms along with a sharp northwesterly wind shift. Gusts of 20 to 30KTs are expected with the frontal passage and cold advection. MVFR to brief IFR conditions are possible with showers or thunderstorms, though direct hits are difficult to time and IFR should be short-lived. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and low stratus could be more common tonight until gradients start to increase before dawn. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions may linger Friday night, especially in the mountains. Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early-morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations at HTS are not making it out long line since 19Z, but the ASOS appears to be functional. The observation is available via ATIS or the dial-in line. No estimated time is available for restoration. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20/JP AVIATION...JP EQUIPMENT...JP