FXUS61 KRLX 181816 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 216 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal risk for severe for Tuesday has been expanded slightly to the east. Frontal timing for Wednesday has slowed a little, slightly increasing potential for stronger storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Unseasonably hot conditions will continue through Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. 2.) Isolated pulse thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily over the Northeast Mountains. With high downdraft CAPE, collapsing precipitation cores could produce some localized gusty winds. Similar conditions possible tomorrow near the Ohio River in the afternoon with additional thunder chances with a decaying convective complex arriving overnight. 3.) A cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The front stalls to the south and returns as a warm front, setting up a wet, unsettled pattern into the long weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A persistent Bermuda high remains anchored off the Carolina coast promoted subsidence and unseasonably hot conditions across the region. Surface observations at this hour show temperatures already in the mid 80s to 90 degrees across the Metro Valley and southeast Ohio. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 90s today and again on Tuesday, running 10 to 15 degrees above normal daytime highs for this time of year. KEY MESSAGE 2... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations early this afternoon show isolated thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain with an elevated heat source above any weak capping. Analysis of vertical profiles reveal deep layer shear is exceedingly weak, generally under 15KTs. This kinematic profile strongly favors disorganized, pulse-type multicellular convection. While the overall severe threat is low, DCAPE values nearing 1000J/kg combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for locally gusty downburst winds as precipitation cores collapse. Some isolated tree damage is possible beneath any more robust core collapses. Tuesday will feature another hot afternoon with isolated pop-up showers or thunderstorms possible across the middle Ohio Valley. By Tuesday night, a decaying convective complex is forecast to approach from the west ahead of an advancing cold front although confidence in exact eastern extent is low. Instability will be weakening as any remnants approach the Ohio River, but a marginal threat for gusty winds could persist. KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front will sweep through the region on Wednesday, providing much needed relief from the heat but bringing showers and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage with some guidance showing a slowing trend. A slower frontal passage would allows for greater diurnal destabilization ahead of it; MLCAPE could recover sufficiently to introduce a low-end severe threat, currently none is depicted with the day 3 SPC outlook. Following a brief mainly dry period on Thursday, the frontal boundary will drift back to the north as a warm front, locking the region into an unsettled pattern through at least Sunday. Severe potential appears low through the weekend due to fairly weak flow through the column, but persistent southwesterly flow will continue to transport deep moisture from the Gulf into the region. Given recent very dry ground conditions any rainfall will be largely beneficial. Couldn't rule out some very localized water issues with repetitive slow moving heavy downpours should they hit the same location multiple times as we head into the weekend, but the risk appears low. &&.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period for most terminals. The main exception will be isolated thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain near EKN this afternoon and early evening. Given the sparse coverage and the disorganized nature of the convection, confidence in direct terminal impacts is too low to include anything beyond VCTS at this time. However, any direct impact could produce brief MVFR/IFR visibility reductions and gusty, erratic winds. Patchy fog may develop at EKN overnight as winds decouple, more likely if any precipitation falls at the terminal this afternoon. Southwest surface winds of 8 to 10KTs, with occasional gusts to 20KTs will persist through the afternoon before decoupling around sunset. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at EKN if winds do not decouple. Fog may occur much earlier at EKN if any precipitation falls at the field this afternoon/evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Patchy IFR possible in convection Wednesday and Friday through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Tuesday with some daily record highs potentially being challenged. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------- Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | -------------------------------------- CRW | 92 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 92 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 91 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 91 / 95 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 86 / 87 (1996) | 87 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 89 (1911) | 87 / 93 (1996) | -------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP