FXUS61 KRNK 071911
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes. Still entertaining a flood watch until midnight 
for our eastern counties. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening 
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding across the Piedmont.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the 
forecast through the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening 
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding across the Piedmont.

Watching deep convection develop across the forecast area this 
afternoon with greatest coverage east of the Blue Ridge. Due
to weak wind field these showers/storms will be slow moving (10
mph or less) with potential for localized heavy rain. With 
MLCAPE near 2000 j/kg, can't rule out a pulse severe or two with
water loading resulting in isolated damaging wind hazard. PWATs
are around 2 inches along and east of Highway 29, so the 
showers/storms will be rain efficient. The high rain efficiency
and slow movement warrant the current Flood Watch which is in 
effect until midnight for our eastern counties. 



Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in 
the forecast through the beginning of next week.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the
focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage
from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating
of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and
with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to
contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and 
marginally severe storms. 

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great 
Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers 
and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south
of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures 
through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal 
for approaching the middle of July, and widespread excessive 
heat is not forecast to return at least for this part of the
country. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior
to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and storms expected through sunset with 
greatest coverage along and east of the Blue Ridge. Will
maintain tempo groups for tsra for most terminals until 
loss of daytime heating. 

In general expect light winds (under 5kts) except near 
thunderstorms where gusts may be upwards of 25kts, and up
to 40 kts within the downdraft associated with heavy rain. 
These storms are expected to be slow moving and remain 
unorganized, so they should be relatively easy to navigate.
Mean wind is out of the west with progged storm movement to the
east at about 10-15 kts.

Once the showers dissipate later in the evening expect areas 
of fog and stratus to develop for the overnight with potential 
for IFR conditions conditions for the morning push Wednesday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the remainder of this week. Heavy
downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible
in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during
the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off
quickly after 13Z daily.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ024-034-035-
     044>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM