FXUS61 KRNK 081038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No headlines are expected, but storms today are still capable 
of localized flash flooding and damaging winds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening 
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the 
forecast through the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening 
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding.

A frontal boundary stretches from west to east across the
forecast area this morning and remain in the vicinity today.
This boundary, along with an approaching upper wave will provide
enough forcing for scattered afternoon storms to develop.
Although shear remains nearly non existent, a very moist and 
unstable airmass in place should support a few strong multicell
clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Flash flooding 
remains a concern as well...Precipitable Water values still 
around 2" and a potential for training/backbuilding storms will
persist into late this evening. Storms will begin to lessen by 
midnight.


Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in 
the forecast through the beginning of next week.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the
focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage
from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating
of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and
with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to
contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and 
marginally severe storms. 

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great 
Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers 
and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south
of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures 
through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal 
for the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is not 
forecast to return, at least for this part of the country. The 
ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th 
of July is shifting west over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some areas of dense fog this morning. This fog will likely 
impact some terminals through at least 12Z/8AM. Once fog lifts,
will have mostly VFR across the area. 

Afternoon storms possible again today, mainly from 17z through
00z time frame, with the potential of a few lingering beyond
that period. Storms will be capable of very heavy rain and
erratic gusty winds.

In general expect light winds (under 5kts).

Another round of early morning fog again on Thursday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, 
gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of 
the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the 
overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall 
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off 
quickly after 13Z daily.

Potentially drier early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG/PM