FXUS61 KRNK 081851
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With stalled front over the area expecting daily threat of 
showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening 
will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and 
flash flooding.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the 
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening 
will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and 
flash flooding.

A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to 
southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains 
converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains. 
Convergent zone runs along a BLF-GSO line and this will be the
corridor to watch for development of deep convection. Mean 
winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look for an 
eastward drift of the activity with potential for isolated 
damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the downdraft 
cores. There is also potential for localized flash flooding per 
environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs running 1.70
over the mountains to as much as 2" over the piedmont... 
backbuilding and training cells being the most problematic. 

With front providing as a lifting mechanism, deep convection 
may linger a bit longer tonight compared to normal airmass 
storms, but overall think activity goes dormant toward midnight
with areas of stratus and fog re-developing per shallow stable 
wedge east of the mountains. 


Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in 
the forecast through the weekend.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for
showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 
to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day.
Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the 
front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend 
with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe
storms. 

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great 
Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and 
storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south 
of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for 
early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are 
expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below 
normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high 
pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is 
shifting west over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered unorganized showers and thunderstorms will persist 
through sunset then dissipate after loss of daytime heating. 
Expect locally heavy downpours with downdraft wind gusts of 
15-30kts. Away from deep convection expect VFR. 

After heating of the day showers dissipate areas of fog and
stratus will develop overnight with potential for widespread
low cigs/vsbys leading to period of IFR conditions late
tonight and early Thursday. 

Cycle repeats itself Thursday, fog/stratus lifting after 14Z 
followed by cloud build-ups around noon and scattered 
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

In general expect light winds (under 5kts), but gusty near 
thunderstorms. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, 
gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of 
the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the 
overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall 
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off 
quickly after 13Z daily.

Potentially drier looks to arrive for early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM