FXUS61 KRNK 090544
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
144 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Showers/storms are decreasing in coverage and intensity for the
remainder of the night. 

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will
bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding, although severe potential is decreasing.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the 
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will 
bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash 
flooding, although severe potential is decreasing.

A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to 
southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains 
converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains. 
Mean winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look 
for an eastward drift of the activity with potential for 
isolated damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the 
downdraft cores. There is also potential for localized flash 
flooding per environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs 
running 1.70 over the mountains to as much as 2" over the 
piedmont... backbuilding and training cells being the most 
problematic. 

After midnight, expect areas of stratus and fog redeveloping 
per shallow stable wedge east of the mountains. 


Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in 
the forecast through the weekend.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for
showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 
to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day.
Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the 
front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend 
with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe
storms. 

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great 
Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and 
storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south 
of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for 
early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are 
expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below 
normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high 
pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is 
shifting west over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and morning 
patchy dense fog continues for today. Highest confidence for 
fog development is west of the mountains for areas that received
rain yesterday, with KBLF and KLWB the most likely to see vsbys
lower than 2 SM and ceilings below 1kft. KBCB may see vsby 1SM 
or lower at times through the morning, but confidence is not 
quite as high, so only have included it as a TEMPO group. 
Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after 
about 13Z or so. 

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by
00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms
should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is 
higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high
res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make
it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have
the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could 
quickly reduce vsby, and lightning. 

Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to
moderate in storm coverage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon andevening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, 
gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of 
the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the 
overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall 
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off 
quickly after 13Z daily.

Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next 
week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...AS/PM