FXUS61 KRNK 090611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Stationary front still remains draped over the forecast area this morning and will continue to persist within the area through this afternoon and evening. Weaker forcing today will somewhat limit storm coverage, but still expecting a few afternoon storms to develop across the mountains initially. Storm motions today will be a bit greater with increasing westerly flow, so any storms that do form should tend to not be as stationary as the past few day. With increased storm motions, the threat of flash flooding is lower today, but any storms that exhibit training could cause some localized flooding issues given the very moist airmass that is still in place. A few stronger storms may also result in strong gusty winds, but overall this threat should remain very localized as well. Storms will diminish slowly after sunset tonight. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and morning patchy dense fog continues for today. Highest confidence for fog development is west of the mountains for areas that received rain yesterday, with KBLF and KLWB the most likely to see vsbys lower than 2 SM and ceilings below 1kft. KBCB may see vsby 1SM or lower at times through the morning, but confidence is not quite as high, so only have included it as a TEMPO group. Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after about 13Z or so. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by 00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could quickly reduce vsby, and lightning. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...AS/PM