FXUS61 KRNK 091725
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast. Seasonal heat and 
humidity expected into the upcoming weekend with scattered 
mainly afternoon and evening thundershowers. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon,
lingering through this evening.

Key Message 2: scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon,
lingering through this evening.

Seasonally hot and humid condition are present across the
forecast area. A stationary front remains draped over the area
with a weak shortwave trough passing across WV. These features
in combination with the heating of the day will aid in the
development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern 
WV/western VA, with storms tracking eastward through early 
evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values
will result in scattered damaging winds but risk for severe 
storms looks marginal for our forecast area where storms are 
expected to be disorganized. Farther north into NoVA, wind 
fields support better organization up that way. And for areas
farther south into NC the westerly wind may actually result in
demise of thermal cells due to downslope flow. In general will
maintain best chance for precip across our WV counties and along
and north of highway 460 in VA...fading to just isolated pops
along and south of the VA/NC border. Main hazard from anything
that develops will be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values are
expected to be above 1000 j/kg east of the Blue Ridge, so this
should drive some healthy downdraft winds. 

As for excessive rainfall, PWATs are still at or above 1.60 so 
rain efficiency is still good, but due to faster storm movement,
mean wind of 20-25 kts, looking at a lower residence time with 
respect to any individual storm cell. As such, not expecting
much of a flood threat unless there is training of storm cells. 

Passage of short wave and loss of daytime heating should lead to
diminishing activity after sunset. Look for stratus and fog for
the mountain valleys overnight. With stronger westerly flow
aloft, do not expect stratus to be as impactful for the
foothills and piedmont. 


Key Message 2: Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected through the weekend.

Current quasi-stationary front is expected to wash out and lose
its identity. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching 
from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of 
showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually 
passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier 
conditions for early next week. Models ensembles indicate some
lingering cloud cover and showers across the southern CWA
Monday, but overall the trend is still for a few days of 
cooling and drying before we heat back up toward the end of 
next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through sunset with
greatest coverage north of the Roanoke valley, or north of a
BLF-BCB-ROA-LYH line. Any storm that develops or passes near 
any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy
rain, occasional lightning, and temporary reduction of
visibility. Storms are expected to dissipate after sunset with
development of mountain valley fog and stratus after midnight.
Wind fields may be strong enough to prevent fog at ROA, LYH, and
DAN. For Friday, expecting another day of scattered mainly
afternoon and evening storms. 

Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to
moderate in storm coverage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
upcoming weekend with greatest coverage during the afternoon and
evening. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions 
are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is 
also likely during the overnight periods, especially where 
significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog
will burn off quickly after 13Z daily.

Drier conditions are expected for early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM