FXUS61 KRNK 161752 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 152 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for late Saturday night through Sunday morning for the western mountain counties. Rainfall amounts have increased across the Piedmont and Southside today through tomorrow. Increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers in the Piedmont early next work week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. 2) Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. A cold front continues to track eastward towards the area, currently across central WV, and is triggering some scattered showers in that area. The front is fairly progressive, and looks to reach the area by 4 PM or so today. With some MLCAPE ahead of the system, and decent warming today, especially in the Foothills and Piedmont, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this afternoon, though the threat for strong to severe storms is far to the north of the area. Strong warm air advection ahead of the front will push temperatures to the mid to upper 80s in the Piedmont. Plenty of sunshine still even in the west have allowed temperatures to already rise into the mid 70s, so still have time for a few more degrees of heating to occur before cloud cover and precipitation from the approaching front arrives. The 500mb trough will cross the area tonight, and so expect showers to linger during the overnight hours and through Saturday morning. As the main piece of energy moves to the east by the afternoon, showers will erode generally from west to east, leaving the rest of the day dry. Rainfall amounts have increased, mainly for the Piedmont and VA Southside, so could now see up to a half of an inch of rain for those areas, and between two to three tenths of an inch elsewhere. Wind gusts will continue to increase through the day, peaking during the overnight hours tonight, and gradually diminishing by sunset Saturday, though turning from the southwest to the northwest following the frontal passage later today. Gusts will be between 25 to 35 mph, locally higher along the ridges. Make sure to secure any outdoor Halloween decorations. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. Confidence has continued to increase on the potential for areas of frost to develop in the mountains by Sunday morning, as high pressure behind the front settles over the Mid Atlantic with clearing skies and calmer winds. Highest confidence is over the westernmost counties in the mountains, from Greenbrier County WV to Watauga County NC, where look to fall to or just below freezing. The elevated valleys will be even more susceptible to frost, as the atmosphere decouples overnight. A Freeze Watch has been issued for those locations for late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Take steps now to protect cold sensitive vegetation. Not as high confidence in frost farther east, especially along the Blue Ridge, as there may be enough wind to keep the atmosphere mixed enough to keep temperatures above freezing. Sunday night into Monday morning will be cold as well, but not quite as cold. Still cold enough to warrant a heavier coat or an extra layer or two while waiting at the bus stop. After that, temperatures start to moderate towards normal for the rest of the week. Early next week, models are coming into consensus on a piece of energy aloft becoming cut off from the main trough as it tracks towards the coast, and a surface low developing along the front once it moves offshore; however, there is still plenty of disagreement in the eventual positioning of the upper cut off low. While any impacts will be mainly limited to the coasts, guidance has trended towards increasing rain chances for the Piedmont and Southside for the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong cold front will continue to progress east through the evening, eventually bringing an end to VFR conditions that are currently ongoing. Along with deteriorating conditions, a sharp wind shift will also occur with the passage of the front. Clouds will increase throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with rain developing. As this occurs, expect a gradual decrease in cigs to at least MVFR by sunset. Lower stratus and more widespread rainfall overnight will likely lead to areas reaching IFR with perhaps a few mountain locations reaching LIFR through daybreak on Sunday. Rain will taper off from west to east tomorrow morning with some rain continuing for LYH/DAN beyond the 18z/2pm Saturday. Once conditions drop below VFR this evening, sub-VFR for nearly all terminals through the end of the valid 24hr TAF period. Gusty winds from the southwest ahead of the front this afternoon, but a quick wind shift to northwest winds will occur behind the frontal passage later this afternoon/evening. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest...20-25kts through Saturday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Conditions will slowly improve through Saturday night as the front and low pressure move east into the Atlantic. Wind speeds will decrease Saturday evening to 10kt or less around sunset, going light/calm overnight. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional clouds and showers may return for the middle of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ007-009-010-012-015. NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ001-018. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...BMG