FXUS61 KRNK 182209 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 609 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Just enough instability along the western slopes for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to form early this evening. Increased PoPs along the western counties (Tazewell to Western Greenbrier). && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1:The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Although moisture at the surface has increased due to this flow, an upper-level ridge has also strengthened and is suppressing convection due to the drier air aloft. This synoptic setup will allow temperatures to remain 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year, with highs in the 80s for the mountains, and low to mid 90s for the Piedmont today and Tuesday. Temperatures are already in the low 90s in parts of the Piedmont just after midday. Therefore, some record highs may be in jeopardy today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, which will keep highs a few degrees cooler in the mountains, though still in the 80s as showers/storms move in late in the day. However, ahead of the front in the Piedmont, highs will likely reach the mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. A Bermuda high pressure looks to develop and remain quasi- stationary across the western Atlantic through the beginning of next week. This will maintain southerly flow and a summer like pattern in place across the region as moisture is advected north into the Southeast from the Gulf and Atlantic. As moisture finally moves into the region, PWATs generally look to recover into the 1.0-1.5 inch range areawide. With ongoing drought conditions, these conditions bode well for multiple rain opportunities over the next week or so starting Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for portions of central Virginia on Wednesday. By Thursday, this frontal boundary looks to stall across the region providing some forcing for ascent across the region. The presence of mid level disturbances progressing east along the frontal boundary combined with a southward sagging 250mb jet streak looks to increase deep layer shear slightly on Thursday. This may lead to another day with possible severe weather chances as instability looks to remain elevated as well. Beyond Thursday, the aforementioned Bermuda high looks to continue to remain over the western Atlantic, which will keep the moist airmass over the Southeast. Mid-level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. While its hard to imagine currently with the drought, if the area does receive repeated heavy rainfall, during this period, the flash flood threat may increase across the area; however, these chances will need to be monitored through the week as these systems move over the region. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With dewpoints remaining low through Tuesday morning, early morning fog doesn't look as likely to develop at LWB like it has the last two mornings. Given this dry trend, fog has not been included in the TAFs at this time for LWB. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period at around 10 knots or less. Wind gusts the next two afternoons looks to increase to around 15-20 knots at all terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 93 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 94 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 90 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 93 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 95 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/JCB/RCS AVIATION...EB CLIMATE...RCS