FXUS61 KRNK 191720 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. High temperature forecasts were lowered for Thursday and Friday as the wedge looks to be more prominent during this time period. Most guidance has come in much cooler than the NBM, and this has been a trend with past wedge cases this year. Further lowering or possible slight increases of temperatures may be needed for Thursday and Friday as model guidance gets a better handle on the pattern. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record- breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. 500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of the cold front. With the cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however,shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, with elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST. Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm moist air is expected to be advected north into the region through the weekend. A warm front associated with the aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday midday, as high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft keep the weather dry and quiet. There are very low chances for a couple showers to pop up along the mountains this afternoon, but coverage would be very isolated at best as the 500mb ridging continues to build and suppresses most precipitation and convective potential. Will see the development of scattered afternoon cumulus along and west of the mountains today, but cloud bases will be generally 7kft or higher. Winds will be southwesterly today, 10 knots or less, on the higher end of that range in the Piedmont and lower in the mountains, with the occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours, then decreasing during the evening and overnight hours. By mid morning Wednesday, winds over the mountains will become more westerly, still southwesterly in the Piedmont. Will see cloud cover increase and bases lower ahead of a cold front, which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon/evening, with precipitation chances increasing after 18Z Wednesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub-VFR heading into the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible today and Wednesday. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 95 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 95 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 96 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min TForecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 94 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 82 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 88 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS CLIMATE...RCS