FXUS61 KRNK 221752
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated PoPs for early showers developing along the Blue Ridge
this afternoon. A low stratus deck is still hanging around 
across portions of the Piedmont this afternoon, but should
slowly dissipate to more scattered coverage through the rest of
the afternoon and evening, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing late this evening.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front pushing into the region late this evening will 
bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier cooler weather returns tomorrow and continues into 
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front pushing into the region late today 
will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front has started to develop showers and thunderstorms
across the Ohio valley this afternoon. These showers and
thunderstorms are expected to translate east through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening today, and arrive across
portions of SE West Virginia after sunset. These storms are
expected to dissipate as they track through the higher terrain
locations of eastern West Virginia; however, they may still
produce strong to severe winds before hitting the VA/WV state
line where most CAM guidance has these storms dissipating. 

During the mid afternoon hours, CAM guidance has showers and
thunderstorms developing along the Blue Ridge and pushing east
into the Piedmonts of VA/NC. Currently a low stratus deck has
lingered across these areas all morning and this afternoon;
however, it is slowly starting to dissipate. Again, these storms
will likely remain scattered in nature for the area as they
translate east through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. The largest threat from these storms, and the
storms aforementioned above for the late evening across SE West
Virginia, will be the potential for damaging wind gusts that 
may blow down trees and power poles leading to localized power 
outages. This threat primarily stems from DCAPE values in the 
800-1000 J/Kg range across the area thanks to dry air aloft and 
at the surface. SBCAPE values look to remain modest at around 
1000-2000 J/Kg across the region, and deep layer shear will be 
sufficient enough in the 25-30 knot range to produce 
multicellular clusters from storms that do develop today. 

Behind the frontal passage during the overnight hours, winds
will transition to northwesterly as surface high pressure builds
into the region. This will bring gusty winds during the
overnight hours to the area, which will linger through the mid
morning hours on Sunday. 


KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues
into early next week.

Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, surface high pressure
ejecting southeastward out of Canada will inject cooler and
drier air into the region on Sunday. This will lead to initially
cloudy conditions across upslope regions in the mountains, but
should quickly clear out by the mid morning and early afternoon
hours on Sunday. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances are
expected through Tuesday, with isolated to scattered chances for
showers and thunderstorms returning to the area by the middle of
next week. More moisture looks to return to the area by Thursday
as the high pressure over the region finally breaks down
allowing the Bermuda high to take over, which will advect more
moisture to the area. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MVFR CIGs are still hanging around Piedmont terminals such as
LYH and DAN this afternoon; however, these restrictions should
lift to VFR levels over the next 1-2 hours. Through the
afternoon, scattered showersand thunderstorms look to expand in
coverage along and east of the Blue Ridge through the late
afternoon and early evening. These storms will push east, and
may impact LYH and DAN, with brief periods of restrictions;
however, coverage looks to remain limited enough at these
locations that thunder was left out of the TAFs for now. A
second round of showers and thunderstorms associated with the
cold front looks to move into SE West Virginia late, and may
impact BLF and LWB before dissipating by the 03-06 UTC
timeframe. Shortly after the front passes, winds will transition
from southerly/southwesterly across the region to northwesterly,
with sustained winds of 5-10 knots and gusts of 15-20 knots
during the overnight and into the early morning hours. With
northwest winds, some MVFR to IFR CIGs look to develop at BLF,
LWB, and BCB. These restrictions look to lift by the mid morning
hours, with VFR conditions returning to all terminals. 


OUTLOOK...

Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the
area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside
from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to
bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for 
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB