FXUS61 KRNK 230032
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
832 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated PoPs for progression of the front toward the area. 

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will continue pushing toward the region this 
evening along with its associated round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, both in advance of an current to the front.

2) Drier cooler weather returns tomorrow and continues into 
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue pushing toward the region this 
evening along with its associated round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, both in advance of an current to the front.

A cold front will continue its progression toward the area 
along with its associated showers and storms both in advance and
concurrent to the front. The bulk of the first round of 
activity will be near and east of a Pilot Mountain, NC to a City
of Lexington, VA line the remainder of this evening. When the
front crosses later tonight, primarily western sections will see
some showers and perhaps a storm.Behind the front, winds will 
transition to northwesterly as surface high pressure builds into
the region. This will bring gusty winds during the overnight 
hours to the area, which will linger through the mid morning 
hours on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues
into early next week.

Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, surface high pressure
ejecting southeastward out of Canada will inject cooler and
drier air into the region on Sunday. This will lead to initially
cloudy conditions across upslope regions in the mountains, but
should quickly clear out by the mid morning and early afternoon
hours on Sunday. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances are
expected through Tuesday, with isolated to scattered chances for
showers and thunderstorms returning to the area by the middle of
next week. More moisture looks to return to the area by Thursday
as the high pressure over the region finally breaks down
allowing the Bermuda high to take over, which will advect more
moisture to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is making progress towards the region. A line of
showers and storms in advance of this feature is currently
progressing east of a roughly a KMTV-KLYH line. Conditions
across the region were mainly VFR, with shortlived pockets of
sub-VFR within the heavier showers/storms. Additional
showers/storms will be possible later tonight primarily across
western portions of the area with the arrive of the cold front.
Behind the front, look for the development of sub-VFR cigs
within the upslope region of the mountains which will continue
into Sunday morning. Additionally, shortly after the front 
passes, winds will transition from southerly/southwesterly 
across the region to northwesterly, with sustained winds of 5-10
knots and gusts of 15-20 knots during the overnight and into 
the early morning hours. 

OUTLOOK...

Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the
area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside
from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to
bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for 
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/EB
AVIATION...DS/EB