FXUS63 KSGF 150546 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is effect through 4 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for localized heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost Saturday and Sunday mornings. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today-Tonight: An upper-level trough is gradually building out Four Corners region, with associates shortwaves ejecting through southwest flow. This area of lift continues to override a stationary boundary extending from the Texas Panhandle through the Ohio Valley. As a result, periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to persist across the area today. Overnight rainfall totals pushed 0.5 to 2 inches in many locations, with a few localized corridors of 3 to 4 inches. Despite some higher rainfall totals, any flooding or rises on creeks/streams has been hard to come by given the Severe to Extreme drought conditions in place. As we progress through the afternoon, activity will remain scattered in nature with much of it remaining light. Some of this activity may even fall as drizzle at times with a loss of cloud ice. With this in mind, temperatures will struggle to get much higher than upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. By this evening, much of the area should see a break with drizzle being the only caveat. Otherwise, a period of dry conditions is expected through the evening and portions of tonight ahead of the next wave of energy and associated showers and thunderstorms lifting out of OK around midnight or after. This overnight round will be associated with a low lifting through the area as a warm front surges north through southern M0. This area of showers and thunderstorms will coincide with an increasing low-level jet (25 to 30 knots) overnight. Given the setup of recovering instability (MUCAPE ~1500 J/kg) and adequate deep layer shear (30 to 40 knots) in the warm and moist airmass, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remains possible. This is captured by the SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk into southeast KS and southwest MO through tonight. Primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph within any multicell line segments. Overall, confidence remains relatively low in the severe potential and coverage. It is quiet possible that SPC elects to remove the Marginal all together in future updates. Additional focus remains centered on the potential for localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 4 PM Thursday. The greatest potential for localized flooding will be confined to areas that saw higher rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning, generally along and north of Interstate 44. This aligns with the latest trends in the CAMs, with REFS LPMM capturing a few narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall. This area is focused from southeast KS to the northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks region. However, trends will need to be monitored for any wobbling north or south with heavier rainfall axes. Rain dissipates through mid-morning Thursday. A period of dry weather through Thursday afternoon, with even some breaks in the clouds, especially south of Interstate 44. This will support warming temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower temperatures elsewhere under the cloud cover. The last leg of this active pattern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the advancing cold front. No severe weather or flooding are expected with this final round of activity, clearing the area through Thursday evening/night. However, attention will quickly turn towards a dramatic cooldown across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday-Sunday: High pressure will quickly settle into the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning, supporting much cooler temperatures. This will be accompanied by brisk north winds on Friday, upwards of 25 to 35 mph. While clouds will gradually clear through the day on Friday, highs only reach into the middle to upper 50s, near 60. The brisk north winds will make it feel more like 40s. As winds lie down and skies clear Friday, a rather chilly night is in the forecast. Lows Friday night fall into into the upper 30s to around 40 for most locations, outside of the valleys and protected areas. These areas may see lows closer towards freezing into Saturday morning, in addition to some patchy areas of frost. At this time, confidence remains to low to introduce any frost headlines, but will be monitored in future forecast updates. Highs rebound into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday, with drier weather prevailing. An additional chance for some frost into Sunday morning, especially across the Eastern Ozarks. Monday-Tuesday: High pressure and a ridge gradually build back over the region early next week. This will support a warming trend, with highs returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Confidence continues to increase on this warm up, as gleaned by the small interquartile spreads and CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current observations show variably low stratus across southwest Missouri, bringing fluctuating MVFR to IFR cigs. At BBG, this stratus has built down to 2-3 SM fog, which may have potential to drop visibilities into LIFR territory until around 10Z. Radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms lifting northeast through Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how this line evolves as it moves through the TAF sites, but there is highest certainty in thunderstorms impacting at least JLN (80-90% chance). As storms move through, visibilities would briefly drop to 1-2SM, with winds briefly gusty out of the southwest before returning to the background southeasterly flow at 8-12 kts. After the line of thunderstorms departs and/or breaks apart, remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the TAF period until the arrival of a strong cold front between 22-03Z. This cold front will bring a sharp wind shift to northwesterly, increasing speeds to 13-18 kts with gusts up to 23-28 kts. Cigs also have a 70-90% chance to at least briefly decline to IFR, hanging around for the rest of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Price