FXUS63 KSGF 200351
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly
  move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered
  showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected.

- Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue.
  Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south 
  of Interstate 44.

- Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on
  Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive
  rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the
Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the
area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into
eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located
just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60
behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The
airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU
CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of
slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The
widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the
areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across
locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred.  

Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon
batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move
east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However,
overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal
that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop 
over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level
jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the
upper level jet will also aid in the development of this 
scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall 
amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed 
flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s.

Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in
precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly 
cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations 
staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of
Springfield that struggle to even reach 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data 
shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a
synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving
through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft.
One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into 
Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a
shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area 
from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble 
probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest
probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we
will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The
WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for 
excessive rainfall.

Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this
weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and
subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range
at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this
weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Light drizzle/fog and IFR to LIFR ceilings are ongoing. Through
the night, showers that have already started to develop will
increase in coverage, including a low potential for lightning.
Outside of showers, expect light drizzle/fog to continue.
Ceilings are expected to gradually lift on Wednesday, improving
to MVFR by late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus