FXUS63 KSGF 230700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas
  and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging
  wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with
  quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy
  rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today: Mainly looking at a dry day given a very dry airmass in
place and capping, but there is a <20% chance of showers/storms
this afternoon that would struggle to see noteworthy precip
reaching the ground through the dry air. Highs will range from
the low to mid 80s NE to the low to mid 90s SW. Afternoon dew
points in the mid 50s to low 60s will prevent heat concerns.

Tonight into Monday morning: As has been advertised, 1-2 mid-
level waves will move through the area under NW flow aloft. A
mid-level jet will develop, promoting ascent over the CWA
(favoring the SW CWA at this time). The mid-level jet will also
result in the development of a SE low level jet that will nose 
into the area. An 850mb front will also be in place over the SW 
CWA, oriented from NW to SE. All these features will allow for 
widespread elevated thunderstorms to develop, as shown by most 
models and ensembles. 30-40 kts of effective shear and elevated 
instability will allow for strong updraft development and 
potential for hail to the size of quarters and the greater 
threat of 60 mph winds given 500-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE. Greatest 
potential/coverage is expected later tonight into Monday 
morning.

Another threat for tonight into Monday morning is locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Generally slow storm movement and
motions parallel to the 850mb front will favor training
convection. HREF LPMM is showing 3-6 inches of rain, so we will
advertise that as the localized rainfall amounts under the
heaviest storms. 6 hourly flash flood guidance is around that
same 3-6 inch value, so only expecting isolated flooding that
does not warrant a flood watch at this time. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the
week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for 
showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the mid
80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid 90s (southwest CWA).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the most part, expect VFR conditions with light winds this
TAF period. There is a 30% chance for showers late Sunday, with
showers and storms then becoming likely after this TAF period Sunday
night into early Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus