FXUS64 KSHV 071921
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
221 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- An unusually deep upper trough for July will hold court across
  the Mid/Lower MS Valley today and tonight, maintaining elevated
  rain chances along with low-end severe and flash flooding risks. 

- The trough axis is expected to lift NE of our region by late
  Wednesday with rain chances gradually diminishing through the
  end of the week.

- Upper ridging will begin to exert a greater influence across our
  region by late week, which points to hotter and drier conditions
  with only minimal rain chances through at least Saturday before
  increasing later in the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The past 12 hours yielded a very active period of severe weather 
by early July standards with numerous convective warnings and the 
subsequent storm damage reports to follow. The primary culprit for
this ongoing event is an unusually strong and deep trough, largely
induced between the ridge axes flanked to the east and west within
the longwave pattern. This pattern will persist with little change
today into tonight as the associated closed low drifts ever slowly
across the Mid and Lower MS Valley. Given that convection is still
ongoing early this morning, expect another active day of showers
and thunderstorms as daytime heating will only further destabilize
the atmosphere once again. This includes the threat of more severe
storms and isolated flash flooding, mainly in areas with training
convection. Damaging wind gusts remain primary for the severe risk
with large hail still a secondary threat. Expect the severe threat
to linger into the evening once again before gradually diminishing
after midnight.

Beyond the next 24 hours, the upper trough axis is progged to lift
NE away from our region and with that goes the higher rain chances
from the past few days. However, isolated to widely scattered 
convection will remain possible on Wednesday before dropping off 
more considerably by late week through at least the first half of 
the upcoming weekend. The resulting pattern shift will allow for 
upper ridging to become much more of an influence during this late
week timeframe, yielding hotter temperatures with the increasing 
subsidence aloft. High temperatures should nudge back toward the 
mid 90s at a minimum with some isolated upper 90s not out of the 
question for Thursday and Friday. 

By this weekend, more recent trends in the medium-range guidance
suggests our region falling between the pair of competing ridges
once again. The stronger ridge out west begins to build more NE
from the Four-Corners Region into the Rockies while the Bermuda
ridge to our SE hovers just off the coast of FL near the Bahamas.
This will leave our region effectively in another area of induced
troughing with rain chances trending higher by Sunday into early
next week. Fortunately, this should allow for high temperatures 
to ease back just slightly into the lower to mid 90s once again.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For the 07/18z TAF period...Generally VFR conditions across the
region, with KTYR being the exception due to convection. Models 
are having a tough time with this set-up, but current thinking is
that any additional convection will stay across East TX through 
the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours. Will 
amend if needed. VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight,
but can't rule out some patchy fog in areas that saw rain today. 
More convection is expected towards the end of the period along 
and south of I-20 corriodr. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1217 AMCDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Spotter activation may be needed again today through tonight as 
the threat of isolated to scattered severe storms could return 
through at least this evening, if not into the overnight hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  72  93  77 /  60  30  30  10 
MLU  92  73  94  76 /  20  30  40  10 
DEQ  92  70  93  73 /  20  10  20  10 
TXK  92  73  95  76 /  20  20  20  10 
ELD  90  71  92  74 /  20  20  30  10 
TYR  95  74  96  78 /  50  30  20  10 
GGG  89  74  95  77 /  50  30  30  10 
LFK  94  75  95  76 /  60  40  20  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20