FXUS64 KSHV 160444 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A powerful, dry cold front will be moving through the region Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air, and gusty northwest winds. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect to highlight increased fire weather danger from incoming dry air and gusty winds. - Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent guidance has continued to speed up the progression of this cold front pushing in from the northwest overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Some radar returns have been present along the front, which is currently draped from north central TX to western AR. There could be some light showers that accompany the front as it begins to push into the Four State Region overnight, but very little accumulation is expected. The I-30 corridor should cool into the 50s just before daybreak Friday thanks to the fropa and peak radiational cooling. Current guidance has the cold front stretching roughly from Deep East TX up into southwest AR by sunrise and pushing southeast of the region by mid-late morning. The front will immediately bring cooler temperatures and the northwesterly wind shift. A Wind Advisory has been issued to account for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible through Friday evening. The drier airmass is expected to lag a few hours behind the front, fully encompassing the area by early afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the same time period to account for the elevated fire danger that will be in place with the gusty winds and RH's of 25 to 35 percent. With the conditions on Friday and the prolonged drought, wildfire starts and spreading will occur much quicker. Public interests should consider temporarily postponing any outdoor burning. These products may need extending into the weekend depending on how incoming data trends. Even with the front long pushed to the southeast, more seasonable temperatures will linger into the weekend. Temperatures could dip down into the upper 30s for portions of southwest AR early Sunday morning with other areas dropping into the 40s. But highs in the 60s and 70s will once again give way to mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week as ridging redevelops over the southeast CONUS. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aside from a few cu that may linger this evening over portions of Lower E TX/WCntrl LA, VFR conditions will continue this evening with mostly SKC prevailing. However, the leading edge of a strong cold front has just begun to enter NW McCurtain County OK into far Wrn AR attm, and will make steady progress SE this evening to the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR, before quickly sweeping SE through all but the SE sections of NCntrl LA by daybreak Friday. Behind the front, MVFR cigs are expected to develop late this evening NW of I-30, before quickly spilling SE across all but the MLU terminal overnight. These MVFR cigs should also move through MLU by 13Z, with winds quickly becoming NNW and becoming gusty as the frontal zone deepens with the arrival of the MVFR cigs. Isolated areas of -RA/-SHRA will also be possible behind the front late tonight over SE OK/adjacent SW AR as well as portions of E TX after 12Z, but low confidence precludes mention in the E TX/SW AR terminals attm. The MVFR cigs should quickly lift/becoming low VFR from NW to SE around and after daybreak, with the lagging cu field also scattering out and diminishing across Lower E TX/N LA during the afternoon as well. Some areas of low AC may linger through through at least a portion of the afternoon over the region, before diminishing by the end of the TAF period. Lt/Vrb winds this evening will become NNW and increase to 7-12kts with occasional gusts to 20kts between 07-12Z across NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. Winds will become more Nrly and increase to 15-20kts with gusts to 30kts after 12Z areawide. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...15