FXUS64 KSHV 162345 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 645 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - An areawide Red Flag Warning is in effect through 1 AM tonight. North central Louisiana parishes will be included in a Red Flag Warning tomorrow for continued very low humidity and gusty winds. - Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passing cold front, area dew points are plummeting into the 30s and 40s as a very dry airmass pours into the ArkLaTex. North winds are reaching gusts of 25 to 35 kts. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours before winds trend downward and humidity values increase towards daybreak. Winds will remain elevated enough that fog development is not expected unless in very isolated sheltered pockets. Dew points will remain low tomorrow, bringing minimum relative humidity values back into the 25 to 35 percent range. However, winds will not be as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana. Given these factors, have elected to issue a new Red Flag Warning for our north central Louisiana parishes from 7 AM through 9 PM tomorrow, with all other counties and parishes included in a Fire Danger Statement. The ArkLaTex will wake up to below average temperatures tomorrow morning, ranging from the lower 40s north to lower 50s south of the I-20 corridor. Abundant sunshine will prevail while cool air advection keeps afternoon highs in the upper 60s to just barely breaking 70 degrees at our warmest sites tomorrow. Sunday morning looks to be the chilliest of this forecast, as lows fall into the 40s areawide with even a few upper 30s possible in southwest Arkansas. By Sunday afternoon, all area sites should be taking aim at the 70s once again as ridging begins to take shape aloft over the south central CONUS. Rebuilding southwest flow aloft followed by amplifying ridging from east Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks will result in a rapid warming trend going into next week, with upper 70s and and lower 80s making a widespread return Monday and Tuesday, and middle to upper 80s and even some sites reaching 90 again by mid to late next week. The continuing proximity of upper level ridging and associated subsidence will inhibit any active weather, with dry and warm conditions expected through to the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 17/00z TAFs, breezy conditions will persist at most terminals for much of this TAF cycle. Strong northerly winds will continue with gusts between 20 and 25 kts at most locations initially, but wind speeds should gradually diminish somewhat by midnight local time. However, very strong winds will persist just above the surface, especially across portions of Louisiana and into Deep East Texas during the early morning hours, so I did include a mention of LLWS at KMLU and KLFK. Winds speeds may increase again, and gusts up to 20 kts may return again after sunrise Saturday morning. The pressure gradient should finally relax after 17/18z allowing winds to fall to around 10 kts or less. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail. /Nuttall/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passage of the cold front, very dry air will overtake area fire districts, plunging relative humidity values into the 25to 35 percent range. Concurrently, north-northwest winds will maintain sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph possible. Very low minimum relative humidity values will continue tomorrow. However, winds will not be nearly as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana, which will be included in another Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM tomorrow. All other zones will be included in a Fire Danger Statement. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today and through the day Saturday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 41 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ005-006- 013-014-018>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...09