FXUS64 KSHV 191047 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 547 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening areawide. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Widespread rainfall is expected almost every day through the next week. By next Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches in most locations. - Rainfall totals are generally expected to be spread out over a long duration. However, flash flooding will become a concern by the end of the week, and especially during the weekend as soils become saturated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A very active and wet weather pattern is expected across the entire forecast area for the next seven days. Our first chance for rain is already taking shape in the form of a convective complex from Missouri, into Southeast Kansas, and Northwest Oklahoma. These storms are developing along an advancing cold front. The storms should weaken during the nighttime hours, but scattered convection should begin affecting locations north of Interstate 30 by mid to late morning today. Thunderstorm intensity and coverage should increase as another linear complex develops by early afternoon ahead of the cold front and along remnant outflow boundaries. Deep layer shear will be somewhat modest but sufficient to support a few severe thunderstorms when combined with moderate to strong instability between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, especially as the line surges southward, likely reaching I-20 by late afternoon, and moving south of the forecast area during the early evening. However, large hail and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Model guidance suggests a large area of rain and thunderstorms will persist behind the initial line gradually decreasing in coverage, but not ending completely Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. No additional severe weather risk is currently forecast beyond early Tuesday evening. The cold front will slowly move southward into the forecast area and is expected to become stationary near or just south of I-20 by Wednesday evening. A shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft should bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This will just be the first in a parade of shortwave troughs to move northeast across the region with another expected during the day Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a much stronger upper trough develops across Western and Northern Texas late Saturday and into Sunday. More organized convection and heavier rain rates may occur Sunday as the developing trough induces surface cyclogenesis, increasing vertical ascent, wind shear, and moisture flow into the region. Drought conditions persist across the region, including large areas of D3 (Extreme Drought) per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. We need the rainfall. Despite the forecast generally showing continuous PoPs, showers and thunderstorms will not be ongoing for every hour of the next seven days, but there will be a lot of rain. Potential rainfall totals through next Tuesday could be between 3 and 7 inches in most locations. Most of this will occur over a fairly long period of time. However, soils will become increasingly saturated with time. Flash flooding may begin to become a concern by Thursday or Friday, especially across portions of East Texas south of I-20. A greater risk for flooding may occur Sunday with the more powerful upper trough over the Southern Plains. Otherwise, low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with daytime highs holding steady in the lower 80s. The exception will be today where daytime highs across much of the area ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, possibly higher if the convection arrives later in the day. /Nuttall/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings are in and out across our airspace and while this cloud cover may become a little more dense as we transition into the post-sunrise hours, still believe we will see VFR conditions preceding strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Still looking like an active period this afternoon through this evening with strong to severe thunderstorms impacting all terminals by this afternoon into the early evening hours before moving rapidly south and east of our southern most terminals just before midnight if HRRR timing is correct. Timed this precipitation along a southeast moving squall line through our airspace with VCTS and TEMPO groups for much lower VSBY and stronger convective wind gusts. Otherwise, outside of convection, look for SSE to SSW winds today near 7-12kts sustained with gusts upwards of 25kts. Kept VCSH going post line of storms overnight along with MVFR ceilings areawide. /13/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide today through early this evening. /Nuttall/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 71 84 70 / 70 80 60 70 MLU 92 71 85 69 / 40 80 70 70 DEQ 83 66 81 65 / 90 40 50 60 TXK 89 68 84 67 / 90 50 50 60 ELD 90 68 83 66 / 80 70 70 60 TYR 88 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 60 GGG 90 69 83 69 / 80 80 70 60 LFK 91 72 85 71 / 30 70 90 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...09 AVIATION...13