FXUS64 KSJT 160437 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1137 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper-level trough that has helped cause the active weather across west central Texas today will start to shift eastward Friday evening into Saturday, leaving behind shortwave ridging across Texas. Cold overnight low temperatures and cooler afternoon highs will remain in the wake of the cold front tracking through the region tonight. A much cooler and more stable airmass will settle in across the region for the weekend. Overnight lows Friday night under generally clear skies and light to slightly breezy winds can allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions early Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning. As a result, low temperatures both mornings could be quite cool as they look to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Apparent temperatures can drop into the low 30s to low 40s, which brings us close to freezing in some low- lying areas. This would be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since mid-April! The strong area of high pressure will move eastward by Sunday afternoon and allow for southerly flow at the surface while an upper-level shortwave passes to the north. High temperatures should climb back into the 70s on Sunday and Monday and into the 80s on Tuesday. The upper-level pattern could become more active for the middle part of next week as global models are in fairly good agreement of an upper-level low digging into southern California by Tuesday night. This would place much of west Texas under southwest flow aloft, similar to what occurred earlier this week. Differences in timing and moisture amounts still exist on this feature so for now, low (20-30%) chances for rain are in the forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0 San Angelo 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0 Junction 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0 Brownwood 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0 Sweetwater 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0 Ozona 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0 Brady 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...20