FXUS64 KSJT 161112 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 612 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rainfall rates have gradually decreased across West Central Texas, with most of the moderate rain decreasing to just at this point. Models show this trend should continue through the early morning hours, likely lingering across the southern counties past sunrise before completely ending by mid to late morning. Flash Flood Watch runs through 12Z and should be able to end it early as the rain continues to wane and the threat ends. Strong surface pressure gradient will continue through the day today and wind gusting over 40 mph remain possible. Boosted wind speeds in the forecast slightly, and will let the Wind Advisory already in effect continue. Much cooler today behind the cold front. Some of the models hold temperatures in the mid/upper 50s so not going to argue with the model blends showing highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area, depending on how long the cloud cover ends up lingering across the area. Wind speeds should decrease after sunset, but may not completely drop off. This will allow readings to drop overnight, even though Sunday morning will likely be the better radiational cooling night. Wet soils may have an effect as well. Still, the coolest readings since the middle of April are possible Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Area of light rain continues to gradually diminish across the southern terminals early this morning. Conditions should improve by mid to late morning as the low clouds lift and dissipate and leave VFR mid and high clouds across the area for the afternoon. The main weather story will be the gusty north to northeast winds, which will gust over 30kts across all terminals this morning and through the afternoon. Wind speeds should begin to diminish after sunset this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 61 40 61 37 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 62 41 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 62 42 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 40 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona59 40 59 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brady 60 41 60 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07