FXUS64 KSJT 180533
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1233 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures expected through Monday.

- Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The relatively quiet period before a busier rest of the week.
Moist and unstable air mass remains across the area with CAPE
values of 3000+ J/kg, but also fairly strongly capped with very
warm mid level temperatures. Dryline will mix east to near the
western border of the area and there will be some convergence
along the dryline, but CAMs suggest not enough to overcome the
cap. Will leave POPs out of the forecast for this. Will include
some low POPs across the southeast counties where better low level
moisture and a weaker cap suggest that a few showers and storms
may develop across Mexico and cross through the Hill Country this
evening. Will include a mention of isolated POPs down there.

Dry for Monday for now, except for a small area across the
northwest Big Country. Most of the CAMs are dry, but NAMNEST has
been persistent in showing some convection developing during the
morning hours and shift east across the area. Cap remains strong
and will likely hold, but given the persistence from the NAMNEST
will include a small POP over that area. Otherwise, breezy and
warm to continue with highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across many area. Behind the dryline across the northwest Big
Country, may see a few readings near the century mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The long term forecast continues to look active from Tuesday 
through the end of the week. 

Monday night, as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a large 
western trough, thunderstorms will be possible along a retreating 
dryline mainly along our western border in the Big Country. 

On Tuesday, as an upper level trough moves east/southeast through
the northern plains and southern Canada toward the Great Lakes, a
cold front will move south into west Texas. Depending on the 
timing of the front, unstable air to the south (surface based 
CAPEs approaching 4000 J/kg) of the front will combine with 
forcing along the boundary, and southwest flow aloft to 
potentially produce a broken line of showers and storms moving 
south through our area. Some of these storms could be strong 
enough to produce large hail and damaging winds, and the SPC has 
placed most of the CWA in a Slight Risk for severe weather. 
Depending on the speed of the front, these storms could last into 
the evening hours Tuesday. 

From Wednesday through the end of the week, we will remain under 
southwesterly flow, with periodic shortwaves moving through 
embedded within the flow. The cold frontal boundary is expected to
become stalled in the area as well. With plenty of Gulf moisture 
still in place due to the front being stalled, and upper level 
energy moving across the area, we should see at least one more, if
not a couple more, rounds of thunderstorms with the best chances 
for more widespread precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into 
Thursday. The details surrounding severe weather potential with 
these storms will become more apparent in the next few days. The 
other concern with this additional rainfall will be the potential 
for flooding, especially for areas that receive significant 
precipitation on Tuesday. 

High temperatures will cool off into mainly the 80s on Tuesday, 
with 70s and 80s for highs from Wednesday through Friday, and 
warmer temperatures next weekend. Although afternoon highs willbe
cooler, with plenty of moisture still in place, overnight lows 
will likely average in the 60s through most of the long term. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Breezy south winds continue with winds up to 30 kts at KABI and
20-25KTS farther south. MVFR stratus had already developed over
southern terminals and will spread north to KSJT and KABI
overnight. Stratus will rise or scatter out to VFR midday to early
afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     93  73  87  64 /  20  20  80  70 
San Angelo  94  72  93  63 /  10  20  70  70 
Junction    90  73  91  65 /  10   0  60  80 
Brownwood   89  72  88  64 /  10  10  70  70 
Sweetwater  99  72  88  62 /  20  20  80  60 
Ozona       93  72  90  64 /  10   0  60  60 
Brady       88  72  89  65 /  10  10  70  80 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04