FXUS64 KSJT 180603 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 103 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Monday. - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The relatively quiet period before a busier rest of the week. Moist and unstable air mass remains across the area with CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg, but also fairly strongly capped with very warm mid level temperatures. Dryline will mix east to near the western border of the area and there will be some convergence along the dryline, but CAMs suggest not enough to overcome the cap. Will leave POPs out of the forecast for this. Will include some low POPs across the southeast counties where better low level moisture and a weaker cap suggest that a few showers and storms may develop across Mexico and cross through the Hill Country this evening. Will include a mention of isolated POPs down there. Dry for Monday for now, except for a small area across the northwest Big Country. Most of the CAMs are dry, but NAMNEST has been persistent in showing some convection developing during the morning hours and shift east across the area. Cap remains strong and will likely hold, but given the persistence from the NAMNEST will include a small POP over that area. Otherwise, breezy and warm to continue with highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s across many area. Behind the dryline across the northwest Big Country, may see a few readings near the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitoredclosely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy south winds continue with winds up to 30 kts at KABI and 20-25KTS farther south. MVFR stratus had already developed over southern terminals and will spread north to KSJT and KABI overnight. Stratus will rise or scatter out to VFR midday to early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70 San Angelo 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70 Junction 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80 Brownwood 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70 Sweetwater 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60 Ozona 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60 Brady 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04