FXUS64 KSJT 180714 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 214 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Monday. - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another breezy day with gusty south winds, particularly in the Big Country, with a surface low in the Panhandle and lee trough in West Texas. While the CAMs are mainly dry with a cap aloft, the NAM nest does develop a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon, but they are brief, only a couple hours. Still, if a storm does develop, it could become severe. Otherwise low clouds developing over the region will break up midday. Highs could reach 100 along a dryline from Sterling City to Sweetwater and Roby, but most areas will see upper 80s to lower 90s. There is the potential for thunderstorm late tonight in the Big Country as a cold front moves in toward daybreak into Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Very mild overnight with lows in the lower 70s, as low level moisture with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s continues to move up from the Gulf. This will also bring hazy conditions particularly in the mornings. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitored closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy south winds continue with winds up to 30 kts at KABI and 20-25KTS farther south. MVFR stratus had already developed over southern terminals and will spread north to KSJT and KABI overnight. Stratus will rise or scatter out to VFR midday to early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70 San Angelo 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70 Junction 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80 Brownwood 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70 Sweetwater 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60 Ozona 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60 Brady 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04