FXUS64 KSJT 181756 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in placefor Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitored closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 There are some lingering VIS values of 4SM to 6SM, but expect these values to improve to P6SM within the next hour or so. Ceilings have all improved to VFR, and these should remain VFR through late tonight, with another round of MVFR CIGs moving back into the area from the southeast after 06Z tonight. A cold front will move into the area tomorrow, but timing is still uncertain at this time, so have not shown a wind shift at KABI just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 86 63 78 / 10 80 50 50 San Angelo 72 92 63 80 / 0 80 60 50 Junction 73 90 65 82 / 0 50 80 60 Brownwood 72 88 64 80 / 0 70 70 50 Sweetwater 71 87 62 77 / 10 60 40 50 Ozona 71 89 64 82 / 0 50 50 50 Brady 72 88 64 79 / 0 60 60 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20