FXUS64 KSJT 190549 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1249 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus along the I-10 corridor will advect back north across the terminals overnight. Strong south winds with gusts up to 30 KTS at KABI will weaken toward morning. A cold front will move through KABI mid morning, KSJT and KBBD mid afternoon, and KJCT and KSOA in the evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorm along and behind it. There is the potential for very strong winds of 35KTS or more and large hail along and behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 77 64 79 / 40 30 90 70 San Angelo 63 79 63 81 / 60 50 90 50 Junction 65 83 64 81 / 80 60 90 60 Brownwood 64 80 64 78 / 60 40 80 70 Sweetwater 61 77 63 80 / 40 40 90 60 Ozona 64 81 63 81 / 60 50 90 40 Brady 64 79 64 78 / 80 50 90 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04