FXUS64 KSJT 191739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. 

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move
along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves
south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. 

While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning 
in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms 
is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in 
maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east 
into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With 
CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, 
supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The 
complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, 
ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values 
around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and 
localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. 

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long 
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with 
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a 
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, 
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight 
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. 
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances 
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is 
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and 
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and 
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time 
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from 
north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold 
front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, 
KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO 
groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at 
these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate 
by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere 
in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds
for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the 
front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning 
Wednesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  64  78 /  40  30  80  70 
San Angelo  62  79  62  80 /  60  40  70  60 
Junction    64  81  63  80 /  70  30  80  60 
Brownwood   63  79  63  78 /  60  30  70  70 
Sweetwater  60  77  62  79 /  30  30  80  60 
Ozona       63  80  62  81 /  60  40  70  30 
Brady       63  78  64  77 /  70  30  70  70 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20