FXUS64 KSJT 191806
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. 

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this 
afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue
developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the 
afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection
into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas
later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail 
and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are 
between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of 
these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. 

For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and 
intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area,
the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow 
with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at 
least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, 
mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area.
We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms,
mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long 
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with 
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a 
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, 
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight 
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. 
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances 
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is 
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and 
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and 
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time 
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from 
north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold 
front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, 
KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO 
groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at 
these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate 
by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere 
in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds
for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the 
front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning 
Wednesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  64  78 /  40  30  80  70 
San Angelo  62  79  62  80 /  60  40  70  60 
Junction    64  81  63  80 /  70  30  80  60 
Brownwood   63  79  63  78 /  60  30  70  70 
Sweetwater  60  77  62  79 /  30  30  80  60 
Ozona       63  80  62  81 /  60  40  70  30 
Brady       63  78  64  77 /  70  30  70  70 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20