FXUS64 KSJT 200522
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. 

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this 
afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue
developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the 
afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection
into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas
later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail 
and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are 
between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of 
these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. 

For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and 
intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area,
the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow 
with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at 
least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, 
mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area.
We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms,
mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long 
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with 
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a 
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, 
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight 
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. 
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances 
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is 
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and 
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and 
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time 
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR 
conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back 
into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR 
overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon,
mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also 
affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will 
move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings 
returning by midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  63  78  63 /  30  60  70  10 
San Angelo  77  62  80  63 /  50  70  40  20 
Junction    80  63  80  63 /  50  80  50  20 
Brownwood   77  63  77  62 /  30  70  70  20 
Sweetwater  75  62  78  63 /  40  60  50  10 
Ozona       78  62  81  63 /  70  70  30  30 
Brady       77  63  77  63 /  40  70  60  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04