FXUS65 KSLC 080445 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered high-based convection is expected to across northern/central UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon with gusty outflow winds capable of gusts to 50mph with scattered severe gusts in excess of 58mph. - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase with a decrease in RH. - Probabilities for a notable heat wave developing late this week continue to increase resulting in areas of major HeatRisk developing statewide. Valley temperatures are forecast to reach and/or exceed 100F Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Large-scale ridging continues to build over the Four Corners region with southwesterly flow persisting overhead. Mid- level moisture will continue to overspread UT into tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pushes across northwest UT, deepening somewhat with eastern extent. As such, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central UT as well as southwest WY. Mid-level flow associated with the trough ranging from 40-50kts is forecast to push across northern UT in the afternoon hours, serving to increase eff. shear to around 20-30kts, potentially resulting in the development of organized convection and longer-lived storms. Additionally, DCAPE continues to remain quite high to around 1600-1800J/kg, and with ample flow aloft, scattered instances of strong to severe wind gusts (58mph) appear likely with the potential of a few gusts to 70mph. The highest confidence for these gusts reside in western Box Elder county due to low confidence regarding eastern extent. Later tomorrow evening into Thursday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly/zonal following the departure of the trough ejecting northeast. Drier air working its way in with the westerly flow with modest height rises across the region will provide enough large- scale subsidence to keep most areas dry with convection remaining across higher terrain. Additionally, temperatures will remain moderated, albeit still quite hot during this time given a more stagnant upper air pattern. On Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build significantly centered over the Four Corners with high confidence regarding the development of dangerously hot temperatures. On Friday, most valley locations will approach 100F across much of UT. On Saturday, nearly all valley locations are forecast to break into the 100s with lower Washington nearing 110F. Similar temperatures are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday across the entirety of the forecast area. Regarding HeatRisk, most valley locations will see "Major" develop, particularly along the I-15 corridor on Saturday with pockets of "Extreme" developing along the northern Wasatch Front. Both areas of "Major" and "Extreme" will increase in size on Sunday, expanding into both Salt Lake City and Provo, given expected poor overnight recoveries across the aforementioned areas. The threat continues on Monday, primarily along the Wasatch Front. && .AVIATION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... KSLC...Gusty northwest winds will diminish before switching to the southeast between 07 and 08Z. Thereafter VFR conditions with southeast winds can be expected through Wednesday morning, with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 19Z Wednesday afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will diminish by 09Z, leaving VFR conditions and light winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over portions of northern and eastern Utah. These storms will be high-based, particularly for northern Utah, and will bring the threat of isolated dry lightning into the early evening. Meanwhile, breezy southerly winds will combine with continued dry conditions over the valleys of southern Utah to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions. A drying trend will begin Wednesday, lasting through the upcoming weekend. With breezy conditions persisting, much of central and southern Utah will see areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday before winds decrease for Thursday. Strong high pressure will build for the upcoming weekend, bringing very dry conditions and the potential for record breaking heat by Sunday. Conditions will become less hot to start the work week, with the potential for moisture to return by the middle of next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ492-495-497-498. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity