FXUS65 KSLC 151822 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1222 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with clear skies. Northwesterly winds will switch to diurnally-driven southeasterlies around 02Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 19Z tomorrow. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will continue at KEVW and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon into the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Tekoe FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity