FXUS62 KTAE 080110 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances expected this afternoon. Chances decrease to more isolated activity the rest of the work week before increasing again early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions (108 F or higher heat index) look possible this week. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The only update was a small increase in winds over the Gulf waters for the rest of tonight, averaging about a 2-3 knot increase based on latest CAMS guidance. Otherwise similar to last night, spotty convection will again start to form overnight near the coast and over the nearshore waters. Observed water temperatures at Panama City and Apalachicola are running a bathwater-warm 89 and 87 degrees respectively, providing plenty of warm moist air for late-night landbreeze-focused convection. && .SHORT TERM and LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently we are sitting in moist southwesterly flow, funneled between high pressure attempting to build in over Florida from the atlantic, and an area of low pressure well to our north being absorbed into the mean flow. This pattern is keeping PWATs near the two inch mark for much of the CWA. This combination of heat and moisture will keep us very close to heat advisory levels through the next several days. Expected apparent temperatures will be ranging from 101-105 for most areas, with pockets of higher values possible. The expanding ridge axis should begin to limit afternoon convection as the week continues, remaining in place through much of the extended forecast. Combined with a more zonal flow to our north, this will keep us in a similar-ish pattern of limited convection suppressed by high pressure. A return to a more active pattern is expected as we start next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The next 24 hours will be very similar to the last 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail. Convective timing and expressions of confidence are the main TAF forecasting challenges. Convection will form near the coast and over the nearshore waters during the pre-dawn hours, bringing thunderstorm at least inside the southern portion of ECP's 10-mile range ring and possibly over the terminal. After sunrise, convection will start to favor inland areas such as TLH by midday. Convection may struggle to advance as far inland as DHN and ABY on Wed afternoon, so have left out any mention of convection for ABY. Convection near VLD will be pretty spotty and may not ultimately move across the terminal. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bring lower, but more variable, winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of high dispersions in our NE counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Dispersions will be fair to good. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria Wednesday and Thursday with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today and Wednesday but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower- moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 95 76 95 / 10 50 10 20 Panama City 80 92 81 92 / 40 30 20 20 Dothan 75 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 76 96 76 97 / 0 10 10 10 Cross City 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 81 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys