FXUS62 KTAE 080622 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 222 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next few days but a typical summer time pattern remains. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions likely across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The western Atlantic ridge begins to exert its influence on the sensible weather today as it builds west. Drier mid-level air rotating in from the south and southeast should keep our POPs lower across the eastern Florida Big Bend and into portions of Georgia. Elsewhere, across the Florida Panhandle and western Florida Big Bend, favorable seabreeze convergence should at least help keep isolated to scattered shower and storm activity around. With the ridge building, we should see temperatures climb a few degrees, especially across our eastern zones where POPs are lower. With this in mind, have issued a heat advisory for these areas. While heat indices across much of the area touch or slightly exceed 108, we have not issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area. The main arguments against one across the Panhandle and parts of the Big Bend were the higher rain chances, and which will provide relief in the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances drop off after sunset but like the last few days, late overnight isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out along/near the coastal regions on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will likely become more isolated Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge remains prominent. A few weak shortwaves moving north of the ridge could help spawn better chances inland across our AL/GA counties. Additionally, some heat advisory concerns could continue. By the weekend rain chances will slowly increase as the Western Atlantic ridge becomes suppressed by several impulses moving down the eastern side of an expansive upper level ridge across the western US. By next week rain chances could return to above normal levels as an active pattern sets up on the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge across the northern US. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Yet another round of thunderstorms expected this TAF period with ECP first to be impacted early this morning, then TLH in the aftn. Other terminals look to experience spotty convective coverage. Thunder is mentioned at ECP/TLH/VLD and kept the mention out of DHN/ABY where confidence is lowest. Otherwise, VFR conds prevail away from thunderstorms amidst SW winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Thursday and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 76 95 75 / 50 10 20 0 Panama City 92 81 92 80 / 30 20 20 10 Dothan 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 0 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 96 76 97 75 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 90 81 90 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-128-134. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ114. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148-158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs