FXUS62 KTAE 082003 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 403 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next couple of days but a increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Heat advisory conditions will be in play across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DCAPE is sufficient to support isolated marginally-severe storms this afternoon, mainly across our Florida counties. Convective coverage will decrease on Thursday as deep-layer ridging becomes the dominant synoptic-scale influence. Temperatures will remain above normal, but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria across most areas. However, portions of the central and western Big Bend west to the Panama City area may be the exception. The overnight shift will do a final evaluation before any heat advisory is issued. &&sweeps by to our north. A positively-tilted long wave trough .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging will suppress convective activity across much of the area on Friday. However, increased coverage is expected across Southeast Alabama as a bit of shortwave energy sweeps by to our north. A positively-tilted long wave trough will then settle into the Southeast over the weekend and stall just north of the forecast area early next week, along with an attendant surface front. These features will ramp up convective coverage considerably. One more day of above normal temperatures is expected on Saturday. Temps will be near normal on Sunday before extensive cloud cover from showers and storms keep afternoon temps below normal from Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another afternoon of isolated to scattered showers and storms impacting area terminals throughout the afternoon and early evening. MVFR to IFR conditions may briefly occur near/under any downpours and/or thunderstorms. Conditions improve shortly after sunset as activity winds down for the night. Showers and storms are then again expected to begin moving inland tomorrow shortly after sunrise. Wash, rinse, repeat. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 With a typical summer pattern in place, there are little to no fire weather concerns. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. No flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 94 76 95 / 0 30 0 10 Panama City 81 92 80 92 / 20 30 10 20 Dothan 76 94 75 94 / 0 20 10 40 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 77 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 Apalachicola 81 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029- 034-118-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148- 158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool