FXUS62 KTAE 090611 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances decrease some today and Friday but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Some localized areas of advisory level heat indices (108 F) are possible into Friday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic will remain over the region this afternoon while weak southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper level trough to the northwest keeps some shower and storm chances in play today. The highest rain chances will generally be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and into northern counties across central Georgia. Conditions will remain warm this afternoon and above average for this time of year as highs climb into the low to mid 90s. Localized areas of heat indices of 108 to 110 are possible, but given potential for cloud cover, some convection, and the spotty nature of these heat indices, have held off on a heat advisory today. Shower and storm chances quickly drop off this evening with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday is likely to be the driest and warmest afternoon of the period before rain chances increase over the weekend and next week in response to a weakening Atlantic Ridge. Additionally, a steadily building ridge across the northern Plains will lead to lowering heights across the region. As PWATs increase to well above 2 inches into early next week, well-above normal rain chances will likely develop. This should help bring relief to recent above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Prevailing VFR conds expected away from thunderstorms. Used the latest CAMs guidance to fine-tune convective timing. Coverage still appears too spotty to maintain PROB30 groups for TSRA/-TSRA. Thinking may change by the 12Z issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through today, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. A wetter pattern begins to develop over the weekend and into early next week with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible today and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today and Friday with pockets reaching near 110 F. Rain chances increase markedly Saturday into next week with high probabilities for wetting rains expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast into the weekend for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. By early next week above-normal rainfall chances will likely lead to higher rainfall totals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 95 75 / 30 0 10 0 Panama City 92 80 92 79 / 30 10 20 10 Dothan 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 40 0 Albany 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 Valdosta 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 Cross City 96 76 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 90 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs