FXUS62 KTAE 091942
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY... 

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Rain chances will remain low through Friday night but an
  increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend
  with widespread coverage early next week. When Thunder Roars, 
  Go Indoors!

- Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Stay 
  hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear 
  light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Below normal rain chances will be in place through this period as
high pressure dominates. While temperatures will remain above
normal, heat indices will not reach advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The Atlantic ridge will weaken across the region allowing
convective coverage to return to normal on Saturday. A
positively-tilted upper level trough and attendant surface front
will settle into and eventually stall over the Southeast. This 
will tap into a very moist air mass with PWATs well over 2 inches 
to generate widespread showers and storms from Sunday through 
Tuesday. A couple inches of rain can be expected in many areas 
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Showers and storms have blossomed along Florida's sea breeze and
is pushing north to northeast. Have refined some of the timing for
the PROB30s to better account for ongoing convection and movement.
Most of the showers and storms wane near sunset with VFR
conditions anticipated tonight into Friday morning. There are some
indications of another round of showers/storms just offshore from
KECP, so have included VCSH for Friday morning there to highlight
that potential as confidence wasn't high enough to include any
mention of thunder at this time. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will shift north on Friday and
Saturday bringing lighter and more variable winds. After a brief
break in early morning convection tonight, a wetter pattern will
begin to develop over the weekend and with multiple days of 
widespread shower and storm activity expected early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

There are little to no fire weather concerns in sight, typical of 
mid summer. Then chances for widespread wetting rain will 
increase over the weekend and be particularly high early next 
week.

Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end 
of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and 
through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5
inches are forecast through early next week. However, flooding is
not expected.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  50 
Panama City   81  92  80  93 /  10  10  10  20 
Dothan        75  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  40 
Albany        75  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  20 
Valdosta      76  97  75  97 /  10   0  10  20 
Cross City    76  97  76  97 /   0  10  10  40 
Apalachicola  80  91  79  91 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Wool