FXUS62 KTAE 161555 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 30-40kts for Saturday. A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 continue today, then turning sharply cooler this weekend following Friday's cold front resulting in highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows in the 50s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The main change to today's forecast was to increase rain chances slightly across the western portions of the FL Panhandle to account for an offshore band of convection moving NE near Mobile Bay. Some of this activity looks to encroach into the aforementioned location by this afternoon as from much-anticipated cold front continues its eastward track across the MS Valley. Added a slight chance of thunder as well given the lightning seen on GLM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today will start out similarly to yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours through daybreak can be expected. Fog may be dense at times, which could result in a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. Light westerly winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Later tonight, a strong cold front will approach the region. Winds will quickly shift from the northwest to northerly and increase to 20-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Florida Panhandle through the day Saturday. Due to the ongoing clean-up efforts following Hurricane Isaias, the Wind Advisory also extends inland for our Central Time Zone counties into SE Alabama for precautionary reasons to emphasize the elevated wind threat that may impact weakened structures and trees. Temperatures will noticeably change with Saturday's highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation is not expected with the cold front; however there is a slight chance for showers in the extreme southeast Big Bend Friday night into Saturday, prior to the front's arrival. The next system that we will need to monitor during the short term is the potential for a coastal low developing off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid- Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The overall upper level trough associated with Friday's cold front will remain over the region through the weekend. This will keep the cool temperatures and dry air for the next few days. Highs will slowly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the period, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This TAF cycle focuses on winds before and after cold frontal passage. For the rest of this aftn into the evening, winds generally less than 10 kts are fcst. By tonight, a strong cold front plows thru the region and ushers in quick northwesterly wind shift, ramping up to about 15 kts sustained with frequent gusts of 25-30 kts. Timed the onset at each terminal based on the latest trends with ECP/DHN experiencing post-frontal gustinessfirst (~3Z) and VLD last (~9Z). Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue for today through this afternoon. Tonight, a strong cold front will push through the waters, sharply turning our winds northerly and increasing to Gales. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with gusty winds up to 40 kts and seas will sharply rise to 5-8 feet, and up to 10 feet in our offshore waters by Saturday. The winds and seas will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High dispersions for districts north of I-10 this afternoon with transport winds around 10-15 mph out of the west. Later tonight, a strong cold front will rush in. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly, and increasing to around 20-25 mph overnight through the day Saturday with gusts approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Saturday morning in our Central Time Zone districts through the early evening hours. There is a slight chance for light showers ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Healthy/moderate dispersions are forecast for Saturday afternoon with a few pockets in the Big Bend region of high dispersions. MinRH values following the frontal passage will fall into the mid to upper 30%s for the afternoon hours, yet remain above critical. Recent soil moisture contents should keep the region out of critical fire weather concerns; however we will be monitoring the wind and gusts as fuels could start drying out through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Our rivers that are in Action stage are continuing on a downward trend. Little to no rain expected for the next several days. No further flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 62 72 53 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 86 59 72 55 / 10 20 0 0 Dothan 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 Albany 88 56 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 88 61 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 89 66 75 55 / 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 84 64 72 57 / 0 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery