FXUS62 KTAE 191324 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through late week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No major changes were made. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The region remains on the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge with the surface high meandering in the western Atlantic. Aloft, mid/upper ridge arcs from the southern Gulf northeast to off the Atlantic coast while an upper low is situated in the Bahamas. Further west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies into the eastern Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is a cold front stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to western Texas. Ridging will remain in place through this week despite the upper low trying to make it to the southeast coast then ridging will strengthen as the upper low translates south into the Caribbean. The central CONUS trough tries to move east but is essentially blocked by the upper ridge with shortwaves riding within the longwave flow over the ridge into southern Canada. The aforementioned cold front stalls in northern Alabama and Georgia Thursday then pushes north Friday and gradually dissipates this weekend. Around our neck of the woods, PWATs are around 1.2-1.3 inches today and Wednesday with limited 850-700mb moisture and stronger drier air aloft from 700-500mb. This will lead to less coverage of convection (20-40%) each afternoon, less cloud cover, and above normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the low 90s and pushing mid 90s in some locations which will set heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100F. PWATs begin a gradual increase Thursday though convection appears limited to the east coast seabreeze. Friday into the weekend, the western Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward with not as much dry mid level air as in mid week. PWATs increase to 1.7+ inches which, along with surface winds becoming more southerly, should increase seabreeze and diurnally driven convection each day. Rainfall chances increase to 40-60% heading into the weekend. With the added rainfall and potential cloud cover, high temperatures won't be as hot with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, with the added moisture, heat index values will still run in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A brief period of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible for DHN and VLD this morning as low stratus or fog may develop around daybreak but should soon dissipate. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will shift southerly for ECP and DHN with the afternoon sea breeze before going calm by this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the northeast Gulf waters through the period producing light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and one to three foot seas into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Good dispersions are expected the rest of the week, though a few pockets of high dispersions may occur Thursday and Friday, as mixing heights will range 5500-7000 feet and transport winds of 10 mph. Moisture will continue to filter into the area keeping afternoon humidities above 40% each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. Chances for rain gradually increases each day and especially into this upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week, however, better chances will reside beginning this weekend. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 91 70 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 91 69 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 67 92 69 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 93 67 93 69 / 40 10 10 10 Apalachicola 85 74 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl