FXUS62 KTAE 220627
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this
  afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern 
  Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts
  of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain.

- A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with
  highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in
  rain chances is expected later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from 
northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest
for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While 
soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, 
some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. 
Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us 
below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the
lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values 
dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of
showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity 
occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be 
quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will 
keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the 
possible exception of along the coast.

For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to  
our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help 
spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be 
in the mid 90s.

Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge 
will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly
flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding 
disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a 
return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s 
with heat index values of 102-108.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Some MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible near KDHN and KABY around
sunrise this morning, so have included TEMPO groups there to
account for that. Another round of afternoon showers and storms
are forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast to
prevail outside of convection. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief 
waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly 
gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue 
over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue 
through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions
will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and 
storms are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage  
is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous 
lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on 
Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this 
afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in 
a short period of time. This would leadto some nuisance to
isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor 
drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  97  74 /  60  40  10  10 
Panama City   90  78  93  78 /  40  10  10  10 
Dothan        94  73  97  72 /  20  10  10  10 
Albany        94  73  97  72 /  50  20  10  10 
Valdosta      94  72  97  72 /  70  20  10  10 
Cross City    91  74  93  74 /  30  30  40  10 
Apalachicola  89  78  92  79 /  40  20  30  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD