FXUS62 KTAE 231959 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 359 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. An SPC Marginal Risk of severe storms is in effect through Tuesday. - Another heat advisory may be needed for Monday across our Florida counties. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains in effect for the rest of today into the evening. Although a watch is not anticipated, low level lapse rates and PW will be sufficient in a northwest flow regime to allow for wet microbursts to produce marginally damaging winds in isolated storms through this evening. A stalled front to the north and existing outflow boundaries are potential triggering mechanisms. Coverage of storms will increase on Monday and another SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms is already in place due to the continued combination of a northwest flow regime, deep moisture and low level instability. A WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is also in place. Uncertainty in timing of development of convection and associated cloud cover precludes the issuance of a heat advisory at this time, especially considering how the current advisory is not panning out. However, forecast heat indices currently support one for our FL counties as well as South GA from Lowndes County east along the FL border to Lake Seminole. The overnight shift will reassess. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday will be carbon copies of Monday with SPC and WPC marginal risks in place. Heat advisory criteria does not appear in jeopardy. Rain chances will increase for Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. Near normal rain chances and temperatures are forecast for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the DHN, ECP, and TLH terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night. There is potential for fog development around daybreak for the TLH, VLD, and ABY terminals, as noted by a TEMPO group, however confidence is low to medium. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon, mainly initiating after the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Increasing coverage of storms are expected Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There is a WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region from Monday through Thursday. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow- moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low- lying or poor drainage areas. River flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... While convective coverage is not expected to be high today, spotter activation is requested as storms that do develop could be marginally severe. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 97 75 93 / 10 50 50 80 Panama City 79 92 78 90 / 10 20 60 70 Dothan 74 95 73 93 / 10 60 40 50 Albany 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 40 30 Valdosta 74 97 73 94 / 20 50 40 70 Cross City 75 95 74 92 / 0 30 50 80 Apalachicola 80 92 78 89 / 10 30 50 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool