FXUS62 KTBW 080731
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of
  the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected
  to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day.

- Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances today
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Weak mid-level ridging will hold over Florida through the rest of
the week. At the surface, the ridge axis extending from the 
Atlantic across southern Florida today will gradually lift north 
through the rest of the week, resulting in mainly westerly flow 
today becoming more southeasterly and easterly by late this week 
and into the weekend. This ridging at the surface and aloft will 
result in warm temperatures, with heat index values approaching 
heat advisory criteria in a few places each afternoon through the 
rest of the week. While afternoon thunderstorms typically provide 
some relief from the heat, rain chances through the rest of the
week will unfortunately be lower than normal as a Saharan air 
layer pushes west into the state, bringing in drier conditions 
aloft.

For today, a few showers could shift onshore and develop along the 
west coast in the morning, then isolated to scattered showers and 
storms will shift inland through the afternoon. The driest air is 
expected to be overhead on Thursday, with no mentions of rain in the 
forecast across the entire area. Moisture will start to return on
Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast 
for areas south of the Tampa Bay, but mainly rain free conditions
expected to hold over the Nature Coast. Moisture will continue to
return through the weekend before a weak cold front stalls out 
over northern Florida early next week, resulting in higher rain 
totals for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A few showers or storms will be possible shifting onshore during
the morning and early afternoon hours, mainly after 15z around the
Tampa Bay. Scattered storms will then be possible during the
afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances over
the interior around KLAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to hold through the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

High pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the southern coastal 
waters today will setup light and generally westerly flow, with 
drier air keeping rain chances low through the rest of the week. 
The ridge will lift north late in the week, allowing winds to turn
to southeasterly and then easterly, but wind speeds will 
generally remain less than headline criteria. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Slightly drier air will filter into the area through the rest of the 
week, limiting rain chances. However, critically low relative 
humidity is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  81  95  82 /  20  10  10   0 
FMY  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10 
GIF  96  77  97  77 /  30  20  10   0 
SRQ  92  80  95  80 /  20  10  10   0 
BKV  95  76  97  76 /  20  10  10   0 
SPG  94  81  95  82 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming