FXUS62 KTBW 081827
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
227 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of
  the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected
  to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day.

- Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through 
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Weak mid-level ridging remains over the region this afternoon while 
the surface ridge axis stretches across the southern Florida 
peninsula. Also in play for the next couple of days will be a 
Saharan air layer that will push west into the state, bringing drier 
conditions aloft and lowering rain chances. For the rest of today, 
we'll see scattered storms mainly east of I-75, but rain chances are 
basically out of the forecast entirely for Thursday. 

As we head toward the end of the week and into the weekend, the 
surface ridge will drift northward while we also get some moisture 
return. This will lead to a more southeasterly background wind and 
an increase in rain chances, with the best chances inland as the sea 
breeze moves eastward each afternoon. Rain chances increase further 
for early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over north
Florida. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
VFR conditions are expected. A few storms will be near KLAL this
afternoon, but otherwise TAF sites are expected to be rain-free 
through tomorrow. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
High pressure will keep light winds in place for the next several 
days with no headlines expected. Rain chances remain low through 
tomorrow, then gradually increase starting Friday. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Rain chances will remain limited over the next couple of days with 
relatively drier air in place. Fire weather concerns are low, 
however, as relative humidity values will still remain above 
critical levels. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  96  81  96 /  10  10   0  40 
FMY  78  97  78  97 /  10  10  10  70 
GIF  77  97  76  97 /  20  10   0  30 
SRQ  79  95  79  96 /   0   0   0  60 
BKV  75  97  76  98 /  10  10   0  20 
SPG  81  95  81  96 /   0  10   0  40 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Carlisle