FXUS62 KTBW 191830 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure remains well off the southeast U.S. coast with the somewhat breezy easterly flow across the region. This should once again lead to the highest rain chances near the west coast later this afternoon and evening where the sea breeze will be pinned. Any convection will move out into the gulf later this evening and dissipate with fair dry weather overnight into early Wednesday morning. For Wednesday and Thursday the easterly flow does diminish some which should allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland, especially from around the Tampa Bay area northward where it should make it to around or east of I-75. At the same time an upper level low will be lingering off the Florida east coast lowering heights some and with enough moisture in place, precipitable water 1.4 to 1.6 inches, we'll see more scattered convection each afternoon and evening with highest chances from inland west central Florida into southwest Florida. Late in the week into early next week, upper level ridging will build over the peninsula while the surface high holds off the southeast U.S. coast. This will keep the low level east to southeast flow across the region and with enough moisture we'll continue to see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with easterly winds around 10 knots this morning then diminishing to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Could see a shift to westerly at SRQ early this afternoon before convection gets going, otherwise the overall easterly flow will persist into this evening then diminish to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The easterly flow will continue as high pressure remains off the southeast U.S. coast. The main hazard will continue to be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that move west off land. Some of this convection could cause locally strong gusty winds and hazardous seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Plenty of low level moisture will hold over the are for the next several days keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40 GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30 SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20 BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close