FXUS62 KTBW 220716
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
316 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend.

- Drier air aloft today will lead to lower rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today will be very similar to yesterday, though with slightly less 
rain expected. With west to southwest flow, a few showers and storms 
over the Gulf in the morning could drift close to shore. Best chance 
for showers or storms will likely be later in the afternoon with sea 
breeze convergence inland and further east. The same pattern 
persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra 
moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. 
The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf 
with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature 
coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will 
also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland.
Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory 
levels. 

A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the 
flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to 
keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture 
begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end 
of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. However, there is a low
probability of showers and storms developing this afternoon that 
could impact terminals. Winds will be out of the west southwest. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the weekend. A few
isolated showers possible over the coastal waters early this
morning. Winds continue to be out of the west, southwest mainly 
under 10 kts. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as humidity values remain
above critical. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  89  79 /  10  20  50  10 
FMY  93  78  94  78 /  20   0  20  10 
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  20  10  40  10 
SRQ  92  78  90  77 /  10  10  30  10 
BKV  92  73  90  73 /  20  20  50  10 
SPG  90  80  89  80 /  10  20  50  10 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming