FXUS62 KTBW 230712
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
312 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hot and humid conditions continue.

- Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the
  Gulf this morning that move inland during the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf will continue 
to develop and move over the coast before moving further inland 
through the day. Mid level dry air over SWFL will limit rain chances 
further south, though an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled 
out. More mid level dry air moves over the area Monday limiting rain 
chances further. However by mid week a series of mid level short 
waves will move over the eastern U.S. adding more moisture through 
the end of the week, which will help increase rain chances. Typical 
thunderstorm hazards like frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and 
heavy downpours could be possible in any storm that develops. 

Outside of showers and storms conditions will continue to be hot and 
humid, though below heat advisory levels. High temperatures through 
the week will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat 
indices possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Onshore west to southwest flow continues today favoring showers and 
storms along the coast early in the day moving inland in the 
afternoon. Convection will likely remain north of SWFL terminals. 
VFR conditions prevail outside of any convection near or 
at terminals. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and storms over the Gulf this morning will continue to drift 
onshore and inland this afternoon. Pleasant marine conditions 
expected away from any shower or storm activity. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture 
remains in the area. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  91  78 /  50  10  20  10 
FMY  94  78  94  78 /  10  10  30  10 
GIF  93  74  95  75 /  30  10  20  10 
SRQ  90  77  92  77 /  30  10  10  10 
BKV  90  72  93  72 /  60  10  30  10 
SPG  88  79  90  79 /  50  10  20  10 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming