FXUS65 KTFX 081738 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 552 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM Uncertainty: The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa. Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/18Z TAF Period Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana between 18z this afternoon and 00-06z this evening, with the greatest concentration of showers and storms occurring along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the duration of the 0818/0918 TAF period with the exception of beneath showers/storms when brief MVFR/low-VFR conditions will occur. Additionally, patchy fog may develop near the KHVR terminal during between 10-14z Thursday, but confidence in this occurring is low given that only a few Hi-Res members support this scenario. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 88 56 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 55 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 57 87 56 90 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 53 87 54 89 / 20 10 100 WYS 46 83 46 84 / 20 20 30 0 DLN 52 85 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 57 87 56 92 / 60 0 0 0 LWT 54 83 53 89 / 40 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls