FXUS65 KTFX 151719 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1119 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... -Today it will be slightly cooler than yesterday with temperatures warming up to well above seasonal averages on Friday and Saturday -It will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday. -It will be dry through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough briefly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today temperatures across North- central Montana will cool down slightly compared to yesterday. It will be dry today. On Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area on Friday. On Friday temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Tuesday through Wednesday there will be persistent troughing around Montana which will bring cooler temperatures and some precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly of 3 for 700 mb wind Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch has been issued for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will continue to clear out this afternoon across the region. Breezy northwest winds will pull off to the east this afternoon, decreasing winds at KHVR and KLWT. Breezy southwest winds pick up at KGTF early Friday morning. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 35 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 27 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 48 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 46 25 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 50 17 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 44 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 27 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 4326 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls